A big point of debate online as Metroid Dread‘s release nears is whether or not it will sell 3 million copies. Some people think it will never happen, and the other side generally thinks it won’t happen within a year. The majority of games get almost all of their sales within the first few months so there won’t be much difference after a year.
What does 3 million look like?
We know for a fact that the Nintendo Switch has sold over 89.04 million units as of June 30th, 2021. For Metroid Dread to sell 3 million copies, less than 3.37% of these systems need to have Metroid Dread bought for them. This percentage is going to be a lot lower not long after Metroid Dread comes out, though. First of all the game will launch on the same day as the Nintendo Switch OLED Model. This will probably help Metroid Dread‘s sales, but even if it doesn’t do that it will at least help significantly increase the number of Nintendo Switch’s sold. By the end 2021 the Nintendo Switch will easily pass 100 million units sold, so even before 3 months is up after Metroid Dread’s release, the percentage of Nintendo Switch’s that need to buy the game will be under 3%.
Many of these systems probably aren’t active or are owned by someone who already has other systems. This is true for all consoles, though. As you will see below this did not stop those consoles from beating 3%. It is especially true of handhelds, but probably less so in the case of the Nintendo Switch because of its relatively high price for a handheld and the ability to play on a TV. So far revisions for the Nintendo Switch aren’t as significant as the revisions for other Nintendo handhelds, which reduces this effect as well.
What has Metroid done before?
It’s hard to get totally accurate numbers for the series, since it usually doesn’t sell much. Still, some online research and estimation can give us a good idea. According to the Video Game Sales Wiki and Nintendo’s official console sales numbers:
- Metroid sold 2.73 million copies on 61.91 million consoles. That is 4.41%.
- Metroid II: Return of Samus sold 1.72 million copies on 118.69 million consoles. That is 1.45%.
- Super Metroid sold 1.42 million copies on 49.10 million consoles. That is 2.89%.
- Metroid Fusion sold 1.60 million copies on 81.51 million consoles. That is 1.96%.
- Metroid Prime sold 2.84 million copies on 21.74 million consoles. That is 13.06%.
- Metroid Zero Mission sold 0.915 million copies on 81.51 million consoles. That is 1.12%.
- Metroid Prime 2 sold 1.10 million copies 21.74 million consoles. That is 5.06%.
- Metroid Prime Hunters sold 1.08 million copies on 154.02 million consoles. That is 0.70%.
- Metroid Prime 3: Corruption sold 1.41 million copies on 101.63 million consoles. That is 1.39%.
- Metroid Prime: Trilogy sold 0.642 million copies on 101.63 million consoles. That is 0.63%.
- Metroid: Other M sold 1.305 million copies on 101.63 million consoles. That is 1.28%.
- Metroid: Samus Returns sold 0.56 million copies on 75.94 million consoles. That is 0.74%.
These major releases in the Metroid series never passed the 3 million copies mark, but they did pass the 3% mark many times. Overall though, most Metroid games didn’t manage to get that far, especially if you also look at spin-offs, though that isn’t necessarily fair to do.
What makes Metroid Dread different?
The main difference is the console it is on. If you take a look at the Top Selling Title Units section on Nintendo’s investor relations website, you will notice that the games on the Nintendo Switch page sold a bit above average compared to the games on other consoles’ pages. This is especially true if you take out outliers like Wii Sports that were mostly sold by being packaged with the Wii. The Switch is much younger than these other systems and sold fewer units than half of them so far, so clearly the Switch doesn’t have a problem selling games.
Metroid Dread also has the advantage of releasing in 2021 and having a lot of marketing. Nowadays gamers have way more access to information about upcoming games than they ever had before. One of the most popular ways to learn about games is Nintendo Direct presentations, which Metroid Dread has appeared in prominently twice before its release. Nintendo also constantly tweets about the game and you have surely seen ads for it if you spend any time online looking at video game related stuff.
Something else that is in Metroid Dread‘s favor is its release timing. It is releasing near the holiday season and on the same day as the Nintendo Switch OLED model, which it has been advertised as a launch game for. These two events will surely help Metroid Dread sell copies in the essential early period after its release. This is especially true since this holiday season is shaping up to be more quiet than usual, giving people less enticing options other than Metroid Dread to pick up this holiday than usual.
So, will it happen, and if so, when?
Yes, it will almost definitely happen.
The first time we will probably hear about the game’s sales is around the start of February where Nintendo will announce how much it sold up to December 31st, 2021. At this announcement it may already be at 3 million but it would not be surprising if it was not. If it is not at least half way there by then the game probably will never hit 3 million copies. If we hear about the sales earlier then this announcement the game probably did extremely well and will easily hit 3 million copies.
In early May Nintendo will announce how much it sold up to March 31st 2022. It is likely at this point the game will have sold 3 million copies. If it is close it is still possible it will do it within a year.
In early August Nintendo will announce how much it sold up to June 31st, 2022; in early November Nintendo will announce how much it sold up to September 31st, 2022; and around the start of February 2023 Nintendo will announce how much it sold up to December 31st, 2022. If the game is more than 100,000 units away from a million by then, you may as well give up hope, and Nintendo may not even update the sales anymore after that, if not earlier.
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